tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922608948294168433.post5090612933808268271..comments2023-04-03T19:01:31.304-07:00Comments on sweissblaug: Covid Death Rates: Is the data correct?samhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14711616507382332674noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922608948294168433.post-6895927560069337782020-05-06T18:23:59.725-07:002020-05-06T18:23:59.725-07:00Hey Rich,
Thanks for the comment but I think we&#...Hey Rich,<br /><br />Thanks for the comment but I think we're talking about two different issues. <br /><br />You're saying that the official data will be under reported for a few weeks until they collect the data. That makes sense. The data point will eventually be included in the correct 'date of death' tally and one can be fairly confident the deaths are accurate after 2-3 weeks from official sources. <br /><br />But the point I'm making is that most of these time series charts (like the NY Times) just report the change cumulative numbers at that point in time. So if there a huge backfill - like for CO on 4/24 - then the numbers won't necessarily be accurate for for that day. And since they don't go back and correct that number it won't ever be correct using this process.<br /><br />Do you know of any data sources that aggregate it with correct backfills? <br /><br />Thanks,<br />Sam<br /><br /> samhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14711616507382332674noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6922608948294168433.post-16266016613141915362020-05-06T18:03:08.217-07:002020-05-06T18:03:08.217-07:00Hi. Just wanted to say that this is not just a wel...Hi. Just wanted to say that this is not just a well known phenomenon, but an expectation in surveillance. The data are not necessarily incorrect; they are correct at the time of report and then changed as new information comes in. Those who work in surveillance are well aware, but you are correct in thinking that others may jump to premature conclusions. For example, policy makers are looking for a downward trend in the previous 14 days. But these are the wrong 14 days: they should be examining day -21 to day -7, since the most recent 7 days will be subject to the phenomenon you have pointed out.<br />Thanks.<br />Rich Rothenberg rrothenberg@gsu.edu (use this is you wish to reply)rrothenberghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01629868552402810966noreply@blogger.com