Thursday, May 23, 2013

Can Nissan Double It's Sales in by 2017?

Carlos Ghosn announced the Nissan's sales target to double by 2017. Is this a reasonable target?

Using data from Wards Auto, I  fifth difference in percent (X(t)-X(t-5))/X(t-5) and saw between 1963 and 2012 what companies actually increased sales by at least 100%.

The last company to accomplish such a feat in 5 years was Hyundai between 1998 and 2002. Increasing from 0.57% market share to 2.19% Market share and corresponding sales increase from 91,000 to 375,000.

Nissan achieved the goal between 1969-1973 with sales increasing from 0.79% to 2.19% market share and sales went from 91,000 to 319,000.

It's pretty obvious that doubling sales when sales are initially at a low level is fairly easy. So I looked what was the starting largest Market Share / yearly sales of companies at the beginning of period that achieved double growht. Honda started with 0.92% market share and 102,000 sales in 1979 (the largest number of raw sales that at least doubled in 5 years) while Hyundai started out 113,000 sales and 0.73% market share in 1997. These were the largest increased in 5 years.

Compare those numbers with current Nissan sales/ market share of over 1.1 million and 7.72%. Doubling sales of this magnitude has never been achieved, ever. I don't think Nissan can pull it off.

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